Empirical Investigation of Impact of Financial Inclusion and Digital Payments on the  Economy: A Cross-Country Time Series Study 

Title: Hiring Of Individual Consultant(s) - Empirical Investigation of Impact of  Financial Inclusion and Digital Payments on the Economy: A Cross 

Country Time Series Study 

Location: Islamabad 

Type of Engagement: Individual Consultant(s) 

Reporting to: Sr. Manager Research & Insights 

TORs Issuance Date: 1st October 2026

Last Date for Queries: 8th October 2026

Response to Queries:  9th October 2026

Proposal Submission Date: 15th October 2026

Expected Start Date:  March 2027

Expected End Date: June 2027 

In line with the objectives outlined above, the detailed scope of work of this assignment is given below: Component 1: Literature Review 

This phase will establish the conceptual and empirical foundation for the rest of the study. It will  involve the review of theoretical frameworks linking financial inclusion, digital payment usage, and  economic growth to ground the study's approach in established economic reasoning. It will include a  systematic review of existing empirical studies - cross-country, regional, and single-country, examining  how digital financial inclusion has been measured and modelled to date. This also includes cataloguing  the indicators and indices used by these studies, the econometric methods applied and their  respective strengths and limitations, the time periods and country samples covered, and how these  were justified (or not) and finally conducting a critical gap analysis. 

Moreover, this component will also involve reviewing Pakistan-specific data sources and definitions,  including SBP's National Financial Inclusion Strategy indicators, Karandaaz's K-FIS survey, and relevant  SBP/PBS classifications, to understand what is already being measured and how can it be used.

Output: A literature review chapter that feeds directly into the indicator and country selection phase. 

Component 2: Finalization of Indicators and Selection of Countries for the Panel 

This component is divided into two distinct work streams: 

1. Defining and finalizing digital payments and financial inclusion indicators 

This involves shortlisting of indicators that accurately map usage, access and affordability of digital  payments and digital financial services. A critical part of this component is to analyze existing  global definitions of financial inclusion to accurately map what financial inclusion truly means and  how it impacts the broader economy. The consultant will also assess data availability and  consistency for each indicator across the proposed time series and country panel; an indicator is  only useful if it can be sourced consistently across countries and years. It will also include defining  indicators that will gauge economic growth. The consultant may also engage with stakeholders to  choose or validate the set of indicators. This will produce a final indicator matrix, listing each  indicator, its data source, and its coverage across countries and years. 

2. Selecting the country panel 

Propose a statistically sound panel of countries, such that it also includes countries at similar stage  of digital financial/fintech market development as Pakistan, similar income classification;  comparable regulatory starting point or reform trajectory (countries that have implemented  instant payment systems, digital ID-linked account opening, or similar NFIS-style national  strategies); regional relevance (South Asia and comparable emerging markets) for comparative  analysis. 

Output: A finalized indicator framework and country panel, presented in a short methodology note  for review. 

Component 3: Consolidation of Data 

This includes sourcing data for all finalized indicators, across all selected countries and years, from  credible international and national databases. The consultant will build a master panel dataset,  structured for the chosen econometric approach, with clear documentation of source, unit, and any  transformations applied to each variable. 

It will also involve documenting where gaps exist, and applying a consistent, justified approach (e.g.,  interpolation, proxy variables, or exclusion), following practices flagged in the reviewed literature.  Data quality checks, including cross-validation against multiple sources where possible, outlier  detection, and consistency checks across time and countries is also important. 

Output: A clean, documented panel dataset, along with a data appendix describing sources, coverage,  and any limitations or gaps. 

Component 4: Economic Analysis and Interpretation of Findings

The consultant will then select the econometric approach appropriate to the final panel structure and  research questions, with justification, and specify robustness checks to be run (e.g., alternative  estimators, alternative indicator specifications, sensitivity to country sample). It will include testing  the core relationship between digital payments, financial inclusion and the broader economy. 

It will also involve testing direction of relationship where methodologically appropriate to address the  correlation vs causation gap present in parts of the existing literature. 

Finally, the consultant will contextualize findings specifically for Pakistan, since Pakistan is the primary  point of analysis. Findings should be interpreted against Pakistan's specific position in the panel (e.g.,  is Pakistan over or under-performing relative to what its digital financial inclusion level would predict,  and why). It will involve translating statistical findings into policy-relevant conclusions. 

Output: A preliminary findings and analysis chapter, including all econometric outputs, robustness  checks, and a clear narrative interpretation aimed at a policy audience. 

Component 5: Final Report Submission 

This will consolidate the findings of the entire exercise, including background/rationale, literature  review, methodology and limitations, findings, and recommendations for Pakistan. This will be  reviewed by the Karandaaz team and any feedback on structure, findings interpretation, and policy  framing will be incorporated by the consultant before finalization. It will also involve submission of  underlying dataset and model files (for internal reference). 

Output: Final report (in Word), a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the findings and supporting  data files. 

Please find complete details in the attached document.